The Fragile Sea Newsletter TFS #01
Economic outlooks, and happenings in AI, social media, biotech, robotics, psychology, and philosophy. A great start to 2024!
Welcome!
The web version for mobile and desk is here
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This is the first Fragile Sea newsletter - a warm welcome to readers!
I obviously have work to do on the length! Please bear with me over the coming weeks and months as I get the cadence, content, readability, (and length!) right.
Over 12 months in planning, I hope you find value within, and I sincerely thank you for your time and interest.
This is all about connections. The About page describes what that means in practical content. Connections are made here between subjects of interest, while observing copyright and journalistic best practise.
There was a flurry of papers and reports for the end of 2023, and the beginning of 2024, so TFS #01 is a little lengthier than anticipated. Let’s dig in.
Quickreads
- The first section points to 2024 economic outlooks by investment houses and other commentators. I will hold over the second section with sources from central banks and global institutions until the second newsletter, on account of the sheer volume of publications released over the end of year period.
- A commentary is then offered in the sense of it all. The Fragile Sea avoids political commentary, though of course there is little argument that politics will be a significant factor this year.
- There is much happening in AI, technology, robotics, and ‘companion AI’ - discussed in the Technologies section. Companies are still working out how they can utilise AI, others are way down the piece. Deep fakes online are completely unacceptable, action, and protective measures are required. My separate nine-part ‘AI Connections 2024’ series goes into more depth, with Part One available now.
- There is also a lot happening in media, with readership, jobs, the rise of the creator economy, progress in the gaming industry, and, perhaps, a place for the metaverse with AI, discussed in the Media section.
- In the Air, Water, Food section, Ag Tech has exciting prospects, and my bi-weekly award for the best article or paper (imv) across all subjects released over the previous (normally two-week) period, is freely given; this one is insightful and well thought-through in conception, writing, and graphics.
- In the Philos, Psych, section, a few comments on the ever-fascinating theory of mind, and consciousness. Anthropomorphology is the thing, the transference of human attributes to inanimate objects - or is it the whole way to pan-psychism? (the theory that everything is conscious). Can this glass of wine really be conscious? Give it an hour and a few refills, maybe.
- In the ‘Things that Go Wow’ section, a special shout out to Cathy Sarisky for expert coding The Fragile Sea, and for helping me to achieve design goals - 12 months hence (I am slow!), and to my cousin Gary Easterbrook, Christchurch, New Zealand, for his amazing photography (©), welcoming his continued contributions to The Fragile Sea. I am beyond delighted, his photography inspires me.
- We say goodbye with a Kokinshū winter poem, and more to look forward to in the next bi-weekly newsletter, due out 8pm (UTC) Thursday, 15th February.
Around the houses and corporates
Unless indicated otherwise, all sources are published in January 2024. Company names in bold reflect the web source only - most companies have standard clauses that any opinions expressed on their web don't necessarily reflect the company views etc.
Bank of America Securities. Ten macro themes for 2024, and, as echoed by others, comments on the significant number of countries facing elections this year [1]. Articles also on why the US economy is so resilient [2], AI and the jobs market [3], and a podcast on Crypto with the secondary byline: ‘A major blow but silver linings exist’ [4].
Barclays. A recurrent AI theme on work and employment [5]. Elsewhere I am seeing a lot of commentary about what AI might mean for jobs. A December 2023 podcast has two contributors querying whether the US debt level has reached a crisis point and whether a meltdown can be avoided through continued economic growth [6].
BNP Paribas. The global outlook for 2024 is offered, and comments on whether USD is bearish, also queries on volatility around inflation [7]. The global impact of AI also makes an appearance, putting an estimate on the boost to productivity before 2030, and later, an estimate on inflation reduction by around the same number. The prospect for growth this year is broadly similar to others [8].
BNY Mellon. An interesting article discusses the state of play in payments, the volume of real-time payments and opportunities for innovation in cross-border payments [9]. This accords with Senior Macroceonomic Policy Specialist, Marc Labonte, in his note issued by the Congressional Research Service earlier in 2023, on the Fed’s launch of FedNow, a real time interbank clearing and settlement service [10]. I have a brief note on this and other articles by Mr Labonte here.
Brookings Institute. David Wessel explains what a government shutdown is [11], a good clarifying explanation of the elements. This is a corollary to an earlier paper of his, explaining the difference between a government shutdown, and a failure to raise the debt ceiling [12].
Citi Research. The global economic outlook and growth in 2024, the manufacturing sector, interest rates, and recessionary pressures [13]. Elsewhere, on Citi’s own services, Heather Gillers, writing in The Wall Street Journal, offers a relatively long form article on Citi’s exit from the municipal bond market, noting that the exit might have “ripple effects far beyond Wall Street” [14].
EPFR. Vikram Srimurthy investigates funds that invest in the development and deployment of AI, with useful charts on sector performance [15], whereas Cameron Brandt charts the inflows into cryptocurrency funds, and also looks at emerging markets, commodities, bonds, and fixed income funds, in a useful ‘year-opening’ article [16].
Fidelity. Tom Stevenson provides a pdf download ‘Investment Outlook - Q1 2024’ and comments on US valuations, compared to European stocks and other markets. Standing back and looking at his charts and figures, the inflow to money market funds last year was extraordinary [17].
Goldman Sachs. Their pdf download ‘2024 US Economic Outlook: Final Descent’ is revealing in its title, and discusses the geopolitical climate, risk, inflation, and growth estimates [18]. A separate article on geopolitical competition also discusses supply chains, and how AI will impact geopolitics [19]. In other articles, the 2024 US equity outlook is examined [20], and the UK Outlook 2024 [21]. Finally, Goldman Sachs Chief Information Officer, Marco Argenti, discusses the emergence of a new generation of AI tools and what that might mean for 2024 [22].
HSBC. ‘The future of funds’ pdf download is a very useful analysis of fund segments, including a chapter on ‘Industry level digital innovation in funds’, and a chapter on tokenisation with blockchain [23]. Other articles include a taster on ‘Navigating the global disorder’, which comes with an invite to register for the full report [24].
ING. Reports from ING are often engaging. In a bundle of 12 articles ‘The Eurozone Quarterly: Caught between stagnation, transition and geopolitics’ [25], firstly, ‘January’s ECB Cheat Sheet: Giving markets the cold shoulder’ opens a range of outcomes for the ECB policy meeting (25 Jan) [26], and points to a baseline [27]. Elsewhere ING provides useful 2024 Outlooks in commodities, rates, FX, Banks, EUR credit supply, and USD credit supply, in bundles of articles written in Nov and Dec 2023 [28].
Institutional Investor. In a slightly different take, II Research tracks top research firms and ranks their outputs annually. Alexandra DeLuca explains who the new global equity research leader is, in this article: ‘Global Equity Markets Raised Questions. These Top Research Firms Had Answers’ [29].
J.P. Morgan. Inflation, the environment for stocks, growth forecasts, and inflation risks are themes in the J.P. Morgan Market outlook for 2024 [30].
KKR. Henry H. McVey comments on the outlook, inflation, investment hedges, and, by rolling one’s sleeves up, insights for long-term investors [31].
Lazard Research & Insights are compelling in the range of their reports: ‘The Top Geopolitical Trends in 2024’ briefly looks at the election theme, repeated elsewhere, of around 76 countries voting this year, also China’s structural economic slowdown, and escalation in the Middle East, before inviting the reader to email for the full report [32]. Lazard Chief Market Strategist, Ronald Temple, provides a pdf download ‘Global Outlook 2024’ discussing disinflation, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions, and a view on the Eurozone [33]. Other outlooks for 2024 discuss emerging markets, the UK, Japan, Europe, and equities [34].
McKinsey. Kate Smaje and Rodney Zemmel identify ‘Ten unsung digital and AI ideas shaping business’, which I found insightful and useful for businesses [35]. In ‘Generative AI in operations: Capturing the value’, host Christian Johnson talks with senior partner Nicolai Müller and partner Marie El Hoyek from McKinsey’s Operations Practice, around piloting and scaling Generative AI [36]. In ‘2024 and beyond’, three colleagues focus on the 2024 productivity imperative, macroeconomic headwinds, competition for talent, and labour costs [37].
Morgan Creek Capital Management. Mark Yusko, CEO and CIO, offers a 1hr21min video on ‘Channeling Byron: 10 Potential Surprises for 2024 - January 11th, 2024’ which is worth the time, and provocative. [38].
Morgan Stanley. The depth and breadth of papers is stunning: ‘And the Beat Goes On, But for How Long?’ is probably one of the best on Fixed Income I have read over the period, with excellent charts, and insightful analysis [39]. In ‘Where do we go from here?’ Jim Caron, Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Solutions Group, discusses growth, landing, and disinflation, as core themes [40]. In a separate podcast and transcript: ‘A Pull-Back from the Pull-Forward? What to Watch Out for in 2024’, he raises four issues; it will be interesting to see how they play out this year [41].
The Capital Markets Group. One article discusses seven key themes for 2024, contrasting the start of 2024 to the start of 2023 [42]. Andrew Peel raises the theme of ‘Digital (De)Dollarization?’ and includes bitcoin, stablecoins, and Central Bank digital currencies (CBDC) in the analysis. It seems crypto has not gone too far away, despite many detractors [43].
Natwest. Neil Parker and Piers Leslie share insights in their ‘FX Monthly Webinar – January 2024’ podcast, noting in the subtitle: “Central banks walk a precarious line as markets try to guess which will cut first, and by how much” [44]. Elsewhere, Paul Robson and Eimer Daly discuss FX in relation to the US dollar [45]. It’s interesting to see the sensitivity around interest rates correlated to views on inflation, and growth, and how much a focus on the USD and US public debt will influence markets as events unfold this year.
Pantera. In ‘The Year Ahead’, Dan Morehead and colleagues look at crypto market correlations within bull markets, the melding of blockchain and AI, and how Web3 can advance that interaction [46]. Given that crypto and blockchain aren’t exactly the flavour of the month, it’s interesting that the Wall Street Journal also ran an article on 11th Jan 2024, by Isabelle Bousquette, on whether Blockchain can help AI, and quoting Nicolás Ávila, CTO, Globant, on AI and Blockchain, and how they might solve each other’s problems [47].
Pimco. Ben Bernanke discusses with Marc P. Seidner, Pimco CIO, Non-traditional Strategies, the economy and central banks in 2024, in a podcast with transcript. His comments on the current inflation, and other inflations in the postwar period, and supply side pressure, are insightful [48]. Tiffany Wilding and Andrew Balls discuss potential stagnation in 2024, in a good piece entitled ‘Navigating the Descent’ [49].
Wells Fargo. In a highly detailed and somewhat surprising article, Wells Fargo explain why ‘The Facts Have Compelled Us to Change Our U.S. Economic Outlook’ [50]. In another article, three Wells Fargo economists provide their 2024 international economic outlook, echoing the general thinking on growth [51].
Zurich. The weekly ‘Macro and Markets View’ (this report being week 3, 15th Jan), is worth the time for a quick snapshot of global events that impact markets [52]. Though issued a few days earlier (9th Jan), the ‘Monthly Market Assessment’ is also insightful, reflecting themes of landing, inflation, and whether rates have peaked [53].
Around the halls
Since the end of the year is full of recent papers, we will leave this section on institutions (The Fed, ECB, World Bank, IMF, etc) until two weeks hence. There are significant bodies of work, and interesting connections to be made here (one is included below).
What does it all mean for 2024?
There are notes of ‘disinflation’ (which we will look at in the next newsletter), interest rate cuts (when?), resilience in the US economy, strong employment metrics, weak manufacturing metrics, the Fed doing a good job of avoiding a recession, positive hints for US stocks, a renewed interest in Japan, concern about a European recession, and all that with an overcurrent of powerful geopolitical forces at play.
The scale of connected factors and how they might impact the picture in unforeseen ways, is ever present. Pick any one factor at random, say, for example, derivatives, an apparently healthy, liquid market, and a primary tool for hedging interest rate volatility. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the notional value of outstanding OTC derivatives reached $715 trillion at the end of June 2023, up 16% (or $97 trillion) since YE December 2022 [54]. That’s a hefty lift in six months.
The vast majority involve activity in hedging persistently higher interest rates, though there are other uses and reasons. The European Securities and Markets Authority report ‘EU Derivatives Markets 2023’ provides useful data and commentary, including splits between various classes, and metrics on the significant rise in volumes [55]. Further metrics on Global OTC derivatives are also recorded here [56], and the UK role in EU derivatives market, and venues for clearances, are part of the equation [57].
So why pick out an important, functioning market? Well, because of its size much is at stake, the canvas is the interplay between overall market risk and volume, attuned to interest rate movements, and there are persistent undercurrents [58], [59], [60], [61], [62].
The EU ESMA report notes the limited number of connected counterparties: “These metrics show that across all assets, the bulk of outstanding positions are held by a few, very significant counterparties, with many counterparties having relatively small positions” [55]. That sent me back to ‘Crashed’ by Adam Tooze [63], and ‘Traders, Guns and Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives’ (updated in 2020), by Satyajit Das [64]. Maybe we see only what we want to, but whatever the case, the market seems highly efficient in central clearance.
What could possibly go wrong? A 2018 paper noted that large firms hedging with derivatives were better placed to manage risks, whereas small and constrained firms were more exposed to interest rate uncertainty. While hedging was beneficial, it also exposed smaller firms to substantial risk [65]. One might also consider exposure through misunderstanding the complexity of instruments, mis-selling, and volatility. In addition, there are grumblings about the Basel III regulations, and whether increased capital requirements might be an ‘endgame for a robust U.S. derivatives market’ [66].
Apart from elections and geopolitical vectors, there appear to be three factors to watch this year: interest rate movements (disinflation?); debt refinancing - up to around 2026, and US debt growth (though global debt growth is a corollary).
There’s not much to add about interest rates - they factor in almost every economic analysis and appear to be stabilising, with the market anticipating cuts; the problem, so to speak, might go away.
Successful refinancing is reported not so much, but is highly sensitive to interest rates (particularly off-Wall Street collateralized loan obligations or CLOs [67], [68], [69]). Some estimates have put the sum due for refinancing by 2026 as high as $6.8trn [70], [71], [72]. That’s a big number, and prompts a word, ‘affordability’, which will benefit from lower interest rates.
US debt growth is the elephant in the room, truly NORK territory (no one really knows). It doesn’t seem likely that the USD dollar will lose its place as the global exchange and reserve currency soon, but how long will confidence last? Jennifer Sor at Business Insider writes on ‘de-dollarisation’ in a good article (Dec 26, 2023) entitled ‘BRICS countries could swing an 'economic wrecking ball' at dollar dominance even without a shared trade currency, former White House economist says’ [73]. It’s a rather stark view, and an alternative that may gain further traction this year. There are other views, but a weak dollar is not for me.
I keep going back to an article in 2019 by Sarah Rundell, Top1000Ffunds.com editor, quoting Sonal Desai, CIO, fixed income, at Franklin Templeton, speaking at a symposium held at Harvard that year. As Rundell writes, Desai argued that being the world’s reserve currency is a privilege, not a right, and said “You don’t choose to be the world reserve currency – the world chooses you…. The notion that the US could print as much currency as it wants because it is the deepest and most liquid debt market in the world and there will always be demand, is not a given.”
“The world has only chosen the US because of well-managed policy that includes sound fiscal and monetary management. If this goes by the wayside, it does mean you could have a different reserve currency.”
According to Rundell, Desai flagged that history has witnessed many reserve currencies before the dollar arrived on the scene – and that the US tenure has been comparatively short.
If we look at inflation, the current bout only started to rise around November 2020 [74], so back in 2019, Sonal Desai’s words were highly prescient: “(She) told delegates that it was a “heroic assumption” to think inflation was ‘dead.’ Indeed, issuing unlimited debt has powerful consequences for inflation. “Spending trillions, and not one person concerned about inflation? You have to centre inflation risk in the budget process,” she concluded” [75].
Looking back now, maybe we don’t know how close we’ve flown to the sun: the IMF sounded a warning in 2019 about (low) interest rates motivating companies to take on more debt that risked becoming a “$19trn timebomb in the event of another global recession”, noting that “almost 40% of corporate debt in eight leading countries – the US, China, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Spain – would be impossible to service if there was a downturn half as serious as that of a decade ago” [76]. Recall the refinancing required by 2026.
In January 2024, James A. Clouse at the Federal Reserve offered: ‘A Field Guide to Monetary Policy Implementation Issues in a New World …’, in 104 pages [77]. In this new world, Federal Reserve liabilities are in high demand by both banks and nonbanks seeking safety, liquidity, and risk-free returns. Under what he calls an ‘ample reserves operating framework’, the Federal Reserve accommodates demand for its liabilities… through both banks and nonbanks. In this new world also, “bank regulation, evolving financial structure, and the nature and scale of the Federal Reserve’s assets and liabilities are inextricably intertwined and interact with each other”.
It's a neat phrase, ‘inextricably intertwined’. Marc Labonte, writing through the Congressional Research Service, raised the point in February 2020, of counterparty risk in the mode of operating in the market while regulating it at the same time. The tools employed - unprecedented prior to the Great Financial Crash of 2008, are now routine [78], and extended [79], [80], [81], [82]. There appears no doubt that a worse outcome has been avoided, but is this operating mode optimum?
Perhaps one difficulty lies in the number of U.S. Financial Regulatory Authorities, as noted in this Congressional Research Service report (Oct 2023): “The financial regulatory system has been described as fragmented, with multiple overlapping regulators and a dual state-federal regulatory system. The system evolved piecemeal, punctuated by major changes in response to various historical financial crises” [83].
The outlook certainly looked bleak 15 months ago. In September 2022, Dana M. Peterson and Lori Esposito Murray wrote that “Inflation and rising interest rates will have seriously negative effects on the United States’ fiscal outlook” [84]. It is perhaps a relief to breathe a little easier, that we might have avoided the worst. How best then, to handle debt growth? Can monetary policy manage without changes in fiscal policy? U.S. Bank has an interesting outlook on how presidential elections affect the stock market (Jan 30) [85]; other sources are equally as interesting [86], [87], [88].
In November 2023, Peterson and Murray wrote again: ‘The Debt Crisis is Here’ [89]. This wins my second-best article award for this newsletter period. For once, a clear-eyed view of what it would take to right the ship, sure, taxes, and a multi-year programme of discipline, but a sound, well-reasoned approach, with practical steps and reasons; and it’s bi-partisan.
Will it be given breath? It would be nice to believe.
The groves of academe
Because of the length already of this newsletter, the number of sources is shortened here to those sparking the most interest for future connections. It is not possible to adequately sweep across all the institutions and the great many papers and subjects of interest that have been released in the latter part of 2023 and January 2024.
Stanford. An interesting paper on ‘GDP-B: A New Well-Being Metric in the Era of the Digital Economy’ on the insufficiency of GDP, and “building new metrics for measuring changes in consumer well-being that capture the value of currently unmeasured (often free) digital goods and services” [90].
Moving away from finance and economics, an inspiring Apple Podcast by Alan Alda (linked through Stanford Human-Centered AI web) on ‘Fei-Fei Li: The Godmother of AI’. This one is golden, it made my day [91]. Her book ‘The Worlds I See: Curiosity, Exploration, and Discovery at the Dawn of AI’ is also featured in faculty publications [92].
Oxford. In Journals, there are collections of papers celebrating women in science [93]. It’s a bit hard to keep up with OUP with over 500 journals on offer [94].
A joint preprint paper caught my eye by researchers at Oxford (UK and Bruegel), and University College London entitled ‘The Economics of Human Oversight: How Norms and Incentives Affect Costs and Performance of AI Workers’ [95]. On the face of it, the paper didn’t appear to stand out, but quickly became engrossing.
Humans are architecting AI systems, with tasks such as data annotation, and labelling images, in essence, critical oversight processes. There are many papers that point to the fact that the dataset quality directly influences the quality of AI models trained on it. This is an outstanding paper at the beginning of a new model of human-machine interaction around human incentives, data quality, and data efficiency, (and) "contributes experimental insights to discussions on the economical, ethical, and legal considerations of AI technologies”.
Science, biology, agtech, envirotech
Frontiers in Science. A new ‘largest-ever’ study of ocean DNA has created an essential, freely available catalog of marine life. As Frontier Science news reports, the lead author, Elisa Laiolo, is quoted as explaining the two major factors that made it possible were DNA sequencing speed increases and cost decreases, (and) “the development of massive computational power and AI technologies, which make it possible to analyze these millions of sequences” [96].
This connects for me to the AlphaFold Protein Structure Database which provides open access to over 200 million protein structure predictions to accelerate scientific research [97], [98]. A conversation with Google DeepMind CEO, Demis Hassabis (co-creator of AlphaFold with John Jumper), written by Tanya Lewis, and published in Scientific American, is luminous and worth every second of the 9 minutes [99].
Both breakthroughs are strong early indicators of the very best innovations brought about by AI. There may be a lot to worry about in other aspects of AI, but there should be no doubt about the innovations and opportunities it presents to humanity. Below, let us address the dark side, the deep fakes, and ongoing efforts to resolve egregious aspects that need more work and focus.
Biotech and Agtech are fast-moving trains in so many areas and include many ‘return to nature’ projects including wilding, and some clever new innovations [100], [101]. In the coming months, I want to write, and run, to see how many fast trains we can catch in these areas, and where we end up. It’s a fabulous journey.
Air, food, water
Hiral Patel, Managing Director at Barclays Corporate & Investment Bank, has written an insightful paper with colleagues, and discusses food insecurity, why it is a problem, global land use for food production, supply chains including Ukraine, and three themes in conclusion: Addressing food insecurity transcends issues of hunger; the cost of inaction is climbing; and food protectionism will make food insecurity even worse [102].
This paper wins my bi-weekly award for the best source I have read over the period. The clarity lies in the structure of the paper, along with clever graphics. The structure appears to anticipate the next question one might ask while reading it, then answering each question in turn, through incisive words and simple but powerful graphics. Very clever, and it makes understanding the issues so much richer.
I will be reading it again many times, which is what I tend to do when finding a good source, carting it around with me, prior to considering whether it can ascend to a list of my all-time best papers. Not many make that cut; one is referenced further down in this newsletter.
I connect Patel et al., to a New York Times article, 22nd Jan 2024, by Somini Sengupta, on the work of Cary Fowler, one of the original leads in building the Svalbard Global Seed Vault [103], [104]. Mr Fowler is now the US State Department’s global envoy for food security, and is promoting “a return to the great variety of traditional crops that people used to grow more of, like cowpeas, cassava and a range of millets” [105]. These crops are more resilient to climate change, and full of nutrients.
I also connect this paper to a Washington Post article by Laura Reiley in November 2023, on why the Netherlands, with a relatively small land mass, is the second largest exporter of food in the world. The article, ‘Cutting-edge tech made this tiny country a major exporter of food’ is a feast of graphics, videos, and exceptional writing [106].
Energy, sun, space, physics, weather
Spaceweatheralerts.com is a website (and sms alerts) that has taught me a good deal about the space weather that floods our home planet every second of every day (I have no affiliation; I just like what they do, and they are nice people to engage with).
I am about to renew my sub but I have become accustomed to receiving alerts like “The planetary K-index has reached a level of 6. A moderately strong G2-class geomagnetic storm is in progress” [107]. I don’t pretend to know yet what that means exactly, but it has forced me to get educated. What amazes me is the great variability and frequency of solar storms that come our way. This site, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) web are excellent [108], [109].
I worked at France Telecom in satellite uplinks some years ago, one story of field uplinks from Tierra del Fuego I have written here. While at France Telecom, in 1994, I wrote an early research paper on space junk. It was a problem then, it’s a major problem now, as Chris Impey explains well here [110].
It all ties in with one of my all-time greatest papers, written by John Kappenman (it made the cut!) in 2012, published in the IEEE Spectrum Magazine, entitled ‘A perfect storm of planetary proportions’ [111] (not forgetting also his other work in the field [112]).
This paper sent me on a research journey through global power grids, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and risk. Notwithstanding other threats and issues, like cyberattacks, aging infrastructure, capacity, and grid connectivity, the solar risks are nuanced, but nevertheless, real [113], [114], [115]. John Kappenman’s paper is the ideal place to start to get an idea of what this is all about. The sun cycle and sunspots are all part, and the high speed ejected jets: “The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours. Slower CMEs can take several days to arrive” [116]. If we are unlucky in several factors, they can take out satellites, and power grids; the solar superstorm of July 2012 missed Earth, in its rotation, by two weeks [117]. If it had hit, the outcome would have been existential to multiple millions of people, a potential that doesn’t seem to be fully appreciated.
In the coming months, having amassed now hundreds of papers and many books on space weather and electrical grids, I plan to write and add my voice to calls to do more to protect our grids. There is work under way in resilience, the question is, how much is enough? This is a complexity/risk/cost equation, as it may not be possible to protect entire grids, but the outcome would be so dire as to be truly existential for millions. The research is all there. European grids, like North America, involve infrastructure components over 40 years old, many substations, for example, are difficult to replace, and with longer than two-year cycles for order, production and delivery. [118], [119], [120]
There is no fridge, no beer, no TV, no internet, no sewerage pumping plants, no nuclear waste management, no hospitals, without electricity. And the remediations, while costly, are far less than the alternative. More to come on this subject.
AI, devtech, comms
Adrien Book, writing for WeAreDevelopers.com has a good article about Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) in January, and asks ‘We’re so busy with “Can We?” that we don’t ask “Should We?” [121]. He articulates all the issues well, and left me thinking long about it… but I couldn’t help connecting it to a stunning podcast and transcript in the IEEE Spectrum magazine by Eliza Strickland, entitled “The Brain Implant That Sidesteps The Competition - Synchron aims to keep its BCI tech simple as it nears commercialization” [122].
For people who are ‘locked in’ and can only communicate, for example, by flicking their eyelids, this is a development with simple movements that does not require surgery to implant. Strickland is certain that the company, Synchron, is way ahead of Neuralink, and has already put 10 of its innovative brain implants into humans during clinical trials without the need for surgery, a key differentiator. In seeking regulatory approval of a commercial system, Strickland writes, "Synchron’s implant is a type of brain-computer interface, or BCI, that can allow severely paralyzed people to control communication software and other computer programs with their thoughts alone”. The transcript is a great read.
Now that Adrien Book has given me more of an idea about some of the deep issues with BCI, reading Strickland’s article cheered me up no end.
I am seriously addicted to the IEEE Spectrum magazine. In the same issue is an extended article by Evan Ackerman on Robots: ‘Year of the Humanoid’ [123], which ties in nicely with his November 2023 Spectrum article ‘A Robot for Humanity’ [124]. This will be the year of robots, amazing and most likely shocking in equal measure. Check out some of these YT vids [125], [126], [127]. This is an area that seems to be travelling at speed in new directions, with or without AI - check out this article in the WSJ by Liz Young on 'Robot Wranglers' (Jan 30) [128].
I invite readers to visit my nine-part series on AI Connections 2024, looking at research questions and gaps for 2024, part one of which is available now, and the remainder in the next few weeks.
Media, publishing, social, gaming
If the construction of robots is not enough, stand by for companion AI, the social end of the scale. In 2022 three researchers touched on the key issues in a paper ‘AI companions for lonely individuals and the role of social presence’ [129]. Fast forward to November 2023, to a New Yorker article by Kyle Chayka, where both men and women are finding solace and meaning - and wherever that might be heading in multiple directions, with their AI-assisted companions [130]. It is sadly true that the world has many lonely people - this could help, whatever other thoughts also crowd in.
And we should also address the deepfake issue. It is completely unacceptable in any universe, I worry about how we are going to stop it, since it involves not only AI, but also the social outlets for distribution, and their capability to spot egregious content in time before it bounces and gets copied exponentially. The capability, and let's be honest, the capacity, to do so is nowhere near perfect, it involves constant innovation in responding to the relentless cyber threats of bad actors finding ways around controls, but we must get better; this could destroy all the good that AI can bring - it really is that enormous an issue.
I am a Taylor Swift fan (and collaborators - ‘Exile’ and ‘Peace’ on the ‘Folklore’ album are really something), and now it is deeply distressing to read Emine Saner’s article (31 Jan) in the Guardian, on just how many others, mostly women, are also victims of what seems to be an unstoppable evil force [131]. But stop it we must. Below, in the ‘zines section, I note a recent interview with Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of DeepMind, and CEO of Inflection. We can’t control technology with technology alone, it must be a combination of technology, regulation, controls, and unceasing watchfulness. But we must find better ways to stop it, and soon.
Turning to the creator economy, read here what Goldman Sachs believes the industry compound annual growth rate will be over the next five years [132]. That’s good news for creators and puts serious pressure on mainstream media [133]. It’s no different in the newsroom, with widely divergent views on the likely impact. Jim Vandehei, the former Politico journalist who left with two others to form Axios, an American news website based in Arlington, Virginia, was quoted on CNBC in June 2023 as saying “It’s the beginning of what is going to be a hellfire” [134].
Publishing is being virtually up-ended by powerful innovations, like the rise of online content creators (as I am one), and self-publishing, with small publishers and agents finding significant success. Open Access (OA - “a broad international movement that seeks to grant free and open online access to academic information, such as publications and data” [135]), AI, and the growth of digital readers, are all disrupting mainstream reader numbers, price, and delivery models.
In terms of esports and online gaming, it seems that they are also in a massive growth phase. The global online gaming industry was worth over $196 billion by the end of 2022, with a CAGR of 9.9% [136], and with some wildly variant estimates of future growth [137], [138]. It probably needs a standardised meta-taxonomy to measure more reasonably. The industry has many aspects and interested parties, including players, tournament organisers, sponsors, game developers, agents, managers, production staff (audio, video, producers, etc), and other disciplines. Tournaments can be watched by many millions of people with prize pools and contracted players attracting lucrative contracts and endorsements. The push is also on to have players recognised as sportspeople, a particularly illuminating article on the player and manager ecosystem can be found in Wired Magazine, entitled “The Loneliness of the Junior College Esports Coach”, written by Brendan I. Koerner [139].
If we look at what seems to be a bypassed technology, viz, the metaverse, hold the horses! Mark Samuels writes a good piece in ZDNet (Nov 2023), stating “even with the growth of generative AI, you shouldn't give up hope on the metaverse just yet” [140]. I think the sense is, it’s not the immediate priority, it will just take a bit longer, but as an experience domain, the metaverse and AI together have a bright future. Throughout 2023, Forbes have run interesting articles on joining them up [141], [142], and believe it or not, the World Economic Forum hosted a session on it, I believe in April 2023, written up in May with the story: ‘AI is shaping the metaverse - but how? Industry experts explain’ [143]. It’s a solid piece of work.
Psych, philos, language, neuro, mind
I am following a line of research on the theory of mind and currently engrossed in Lisa Feldman Barrett’s ‘How Emotions Are Made’ [144], and ‘The Evolution of the Sensitive Soul’ by Eva Jablonka and Simona Ginsburg [145], plus a load of papers on dual hemispheres but single consciousness. The journey is explained in more detail in my nine-part series on AI Connections 2024, of which part one is available here.
What intrigues me is how we attribute human traits so readily to inanimate objects [146], and the various arguments around consciousness. This again is truly NORK territory (no-one really knows), and has been, it seems, since before Plato. I don’t know why, but I find the journey deeply engrossing, and sometimes, it makes me laugh. We might as well enjoy the hoops being jumped through to make even the most out-there ideas sound scientific, while of course avoiding any religious undertones, i.e. ‘soul’, ‘vitalism’, and so forth.
Sometimes I want to shout "who cares like? enjoy it all and open the mind!”. The latest idea is panpsychism, everything is conscious. I wonder if I should worry whether a chair is going to shove me as I walk past. I mean, let’s enjoy this, it’s being going on a long time, and it’s a perfect NORK. Consciousness? The word is like the famous scene in Pwincess Bwide: “Mawage. Mawage is wot bwings us togethaarh toodaee. Mawage, that bwessed awangement, that dweam wivin a dweam. Then waarv, twooo wuuv, wiw fowwow you foooweva!”
More seriously, these avenues connect for me with mindfulness-based cognitive therapy [147], and mental health in youth [148]. I am not sure how yet, all I sense is that we are somehow failing our young, particularly anxiety levels with climate change, whatever side of that fence one may sit on [149], [150].
the ‘zines
The Economist opens the year with a depressing article - it seems that even AI researchers don’t think fakes will be detectable [151]. Well yes, as above, 2024 is going to be marked by copyright wars, deepfakes, and other issues, it’s plain to me that AI won’t be controlled by a technological solution, as if some almighty arms race will blat the last human or humanoid standing, whichever one wins that round. We know how that works in cyber: it never ends. That’s the nub of stoked fears - that somehow AI will develop overwhelming firepower. We need to come back from the edge of that narrative, it’s in our behest to make sure that doesn’t happen and stoking that fear doesn’t help. The solutions will not be perfect to start, they may never be, but it’s going to take a combination of tools and actions. It’s like we have birthed a baby, now we must grow it up with manners. In future, we will also have to create containment protocols for rogues.
Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of DeepMind, and CEO of Inflection, writes a ripping article in Foreign Affairs on containing AI, and how to adapt a cold war strategy to the new threat. And he’s right, it will be a set of “interlinked and mutually reinforcing technical, cultural, legal, and political mechanisms for maintaining societal control of AI” [152]. Technology on its own will not be able to control technology; the sooner we face that, the better.
MIT Tech Review has good articles around small language models that could fit on a laptop. This goes back to earlier in 2023 as explained by Rachel Gordon [153], and here [154], also a Google paper [155], and a nice follow-up in January 2024, by Rosemary J Thomas, PhD [156].
AI is everywhere. The New Yorker magazine has an extended piece by John Seabrook (Jan 29), on Lucian Grainge’s ‘high-stakes’ music industry experiments with Generative AI [157]. A good 75% of the article is about Lucian Grainge’s journey himself, but music creation surely must be one of the most painful areas to discuss in the same breath as AI. Grainge comes across as a man for the artist, one hopes that if anyone can ensure artists are rewarded in an AI world, it might be himself. This is a story that has a long way to run though.
Just when you think the subject of consciousness has exhausted itself for the moment, something else comes along. Scientific American has a great read on measuring consciousness and a new technique that helps anaesthesiologists track changes in states of consciousness [158]. The interesting part is that they measure consciousness as a continuum. That sounds about right; for all my jesting, I sense that there are going to be some major breakthroughs in neuroscience and consciousness in the next few years.
Discussion
And so we arrive, almost at the end. Reading back over my first newsletter, I apologise to my readers for it being so heavily AI, (and so long!) please allow me to get this right. But maybe also, it's because AI is all over everything right now.
It’s time to wrap up. If you stayed the distance, thanks! Please allow me also to thank a few people who have helped to make The Fragile Sea happen.
Things that go wow
When I needed help to achieve design goals and code the website, I looked on the Ghost support web and reached out to Cathy Sarisky [159], Ghost Expert, who runs Spectral Web Services [160] (among other professional interests - she is a busy person!). So, a big shout-out to Cathy, this web would not have been possible without her expert coding and understanding the design goals I wanted to achieve, even if I didn’t know myself if they could be! She is a true expert professional and a nice person too!
My first cousin, Gary Easterbook. Well, we both grew up on farms in Northland, New Zealand, about five miles apart, and did all the normal things like rugby, music, holidays at the beach, and later, surfing, and hanging out. I am stoked that Gary is happy for me to present his photography because he has an amazing professional eye, and my own efforts are only a patch on his (that was an unintended pun).
So what you see on The Fragile Sea, are photographs © Gary Easterbook, [161] apart from a few of my own. Gary lives in Christchurch, New Zealand, and, apart from photography, is a musician, and runs vocal training courses with his partner Niki [162]. Thanks Gary, it makes everything way better.
What’s coming up
Over the next two weeks I am planning on completing more of my nine-part series on AI Connections 2024 and posting them (links in the next newsletter).
I also plan on starting the HIPPI comedic faction series, - and of course, completing the next newsletter, to be released 8pm UTC Thursday 15th February.
If you are interested in why I called it The Fragile Sea, I have an explanation of the journey here.
Thank you for reading! Hope you can join me again, till then, take care!
Brent
still winter lingers
but from the heavens fall these
blossoms of purest
white it seems that spring must wait
on the far side of those clouds
Kiyowara no Fukayabu
(Kokinshū [163], Winter 330, p.141).
Bye for now
Room 5000 - a short story I wrote in 1981 about a computer becoming sentient
TFS#09 - What do Neoliberalism, Friederich Hayek, markets, algorithms, AI, and creativity have in common? We delve into these subjects for more connections
TFS#08 - What are the correlations between growth, debt, inflation, and interest rates? In this business edition of The Fragile Sea, we go hunting in corporate, institutional, and academic papers for insights in the face of heightened political, economic, corporate, and environmental risks, and more besides!
TFS#07 - We discuss a mixing pot of subjects - the state of AI, will there be food shortages this summer? good things and not so in energy, pandemics - are we ready? some remarkable discoveries, and more!
TFS#06 - Can AI produce true creativity? We discuss music, art and creativity, why human creators have a strong future, and why we must assure that they do
TFS#05 - Practical guides for implementing AI, in other news, a revisit on CRISPR, and events in spaceweather, fake publishing, spring blossoms, and more!
TFS#04 - Has Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) arrived already? We look at the goings on in AI over the past four months
TFS#03 - AGI and machine sentience, copyright, developments in biotech, space weather, and much more
TFS#02 - Sam Altman's $7trn request for investment in AI, economic outlooks, and happenings in biotech, robotics, psychology, and philosophy.
TFS#01 - Economic outlooks, and happenings in AI, social media, biotech, robotics, psychology, and philosophy.
AI 2024 Series
Part 1: Introduction / History of AI
Part 2: Technologies
Part 3: Commercial uses
Part 4: Neural architectures and sentience - coming soon!
Part 5: Meaning, Language, and Data
Part 6: Ethics, oversight and legal
Part 7: Media and social
Part 8: Future humanity
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